Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 10 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Bulgaria | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Denmark | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Georgia | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Germany | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Israel | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| Latvia | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Lithuania | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Eurovision Song Contest 2026 will take place in May, with participating nations competing across semi-finals and a grand final to determine the top ten highest-scoring entries. The contest combines jury voting and public televoting across Europe and beyond, with scores aggregated to establish final rankings. A nation must avoid elimination during semi-final rounds and secure sufficient combined votes to finish within the top ten in the grand final to resolve this market positively.
Historical Eurovision results demonstrate considerable variance in outcomes, particularly for nations without established track records in the contest or those competing in earlier semi-final slots. Countries finishing in the top ten typically accumulate scores between 200 and 400 points, though this range has widened in recent contests. The 24% implied probability suggests the market assesses moderate difficulty for the named country to achieve top-ten placement, positioning it as neither a strong favourite nor an outsider. Previous editions show that semi-final positioning, song composition, staging production, and jury familiarity significantly influence final rankings.
Key catalysts include the official announcement of Eurovision 2026's host city and venue, expected in late 2024 or early 2025, which may influence logistical factors and participation rates. The release of participating countries' entries typically occurs in March 2026, providing concrete data on song quality and production values. Semi-final draw results, scheduled weeks before the contest, will determine whether the named country faces a competitive or weaker field. Traders should monitor any withdrawal announcements, rule changes, or voting format modifications announced by the European Broadcasting Union prior to May 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: Top 10" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$700K in lifetime turnover and $319K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $85K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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