Trade: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $30
- 24h Volume
- $30
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| 20–25M | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| 25–30M | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| 30–35M | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| 35–40M | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| 45–50M | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| <20M | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 40–45M | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| 50M+ | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours, with the market currently pricing a 36% probability for a specific view bracket. The settlement window closes 31 May 2026, with resolution dependent on YouTube's public view counter at the 24-hour mark following publication. If no video materialises by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
MrBeast has consistently achieved first-day view counts exceeding 50 million across his recent uploads, with several videos surpassing 100 million views within 24 hours. His channel's algorithmic prominence, combined with a subscriber base exceeding 200 million, creates a structural floor for initial performance. Historical precedent suggests volatility correlates with content type—challenge videos and collaborations typically outperform donation-focused content—though his baseline remains substantially higher than most creators. The current 36% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around the specific bracket thresholds rather than fundamental doubt about strong opening performance.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding MrBeast's content schedule, production capacity, and any platform algorithm changes affecting initial distribution. Recent controversies or collaborations announced publicly can shift viewer anticipation. The settlement deadline of 31 May 2026 creates a defined window; extended gaps between uploads would trigger the lowest-bracket resolution clause, introducing tail risk for positions betting on higher view counts. YouTube's view-counting methodology and any technical delays in reporting remain operational dependencies affecting precise settlement timing.
Wikipedia Context
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Michael SavageMichael Alan Weiner known by his professional name Michael Savage, is an American author, political commentator, activist, and former radio host. Savage is best known as the host of The Savage Nation, a nationally syndicated talk show that aired on Talk Radio Network across the United States until 2021, and in 2009 was the second most listened-to radio talk
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The Political CesspoolThe Political Cesspool is a weekly far-right talk radio show founded by Tennessean political activist James Edwards and syndicated by the organizations Liberty News Radio Network and Accent Radio Network in the United States. First broadcast in October 2004 twice a week from radio station WMQM, per Edwards it has been simulcast on Stormfront Radio, a service
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ViewSheet
ViewSheet is a spreadsheet program produced in the 1980s by Acornsoft for use with the BBC Micro and Acorn Electron microcomputers. It was distributed as a pre-installed ROM with some computer models, such as the Master. ViewSheet was written by Mark Colton.
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Shahid MasoodShahid Masood is a Pakistani columnist and political analyst who hosts the talk show Live with Dr. Shahid Masood on GNN. He is known for his series End of Time on ARY and Meray Mutabiq on GEO News.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$30 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mrbeast contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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