Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Apex | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Roommates | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bugonia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Thrash | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Den of Thieves | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix publishes its global Top 10 movies ranking each Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, measuring viewership from the preceding week. The update on 5 May 2026 will reveal which film held the #1 position globally for the week of 28 April to 4 May. The market resolves to whichever title Netflix lists first in its English-language global movies category on top10.netflix.com, with a backstop resolution to "Other" if the update fails to post by 8 May at 11:59 PM ET.
The current 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that Netflix will publish its weekly rankings as scheduled. Historical data shows Netflix has maintained consistent Tuesday publication cadence for over two years, with publication delays or outages occurring in fewer than 2% of instances. The ranking itself is algorithmic and based on Netflix's internal view counts, making the outcome dependent entirely on actual subscriber behaviour rather than editorial discretion. No single film has dominated the global top spot for more than four consecutive weeks in the past eighteen months, suggesting competitive churn week-to-week.
Traders should monitor Netflix release schedules and any major film launches in the week prior to the settlement window. Recent industry reporting indicates several mid-budget releases scheduled for late April 2026, though no blockbuster premieres have been formally announced as of early May. The market's resolution hinges on Netflix's technical infrastructure functioning normally; any platform outage or data reporting error would trigger the "Other" outcome, though such events remain statistically rare.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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