Trade: MLB: RBIs Leader
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who records the most runs batted in (RBIs) during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player that hits more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $103K
- Total Volume
- $775
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $711
Market outcomes
| Player AE | — | |
| Player AI | — | |
| Player AM | — | |
| Player AQ | — | |
| Pete Alonso | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| Eugenio Suárez | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Junior Caminero | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
The 2026 MLB regular season will determine which player accumulates the most runs batted in across all 162 games. The RBI leader typically emerges from amongst the league's most productive hitters, those batting in premium lineup positions with consistent run-scoring opportunities. Historical RBI leaders have ranged from 100 to 150 RBIs depending on offensive environment and team construction, with the honour traditionally claimed by established sluggers or emerging stars in their prime years.
Comparable markets tracking individual season statistical leaders show that early-season performance and injury status prove critical variables. The 2025 MLB season will provide the most recent comparable data for assessing which players are positioned for high RBI totals in 2026, particularly those on contending teams with strong offensive lineups. Team composition changes, free agency signings, and trade activity during the off-season will reshape batting orders and run-scoring contexts significantly.
Traders should monitor spring training performance beginning in February 2026, roster announcements from all thirty clubs, and early regular season results once play commences in late March. Injuries to key offensive players can dramatically alter RBI distribution across the league, whilst trades mid-season may relocate productive hitters to teams with greater run-scoring opportunities. The Polymarket order book will reflect shifting probabilities as these developments unfold, with the implied probability currently forming based on pre-season expectations and historical performance patterns of the league's top offensive contributors.
Wikipedia Context
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Major League BaseballMajor League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball league in North America composed of 30 teams, divided equally between the National League (NL) and the American League (AL), with 29 in the United States and 1 in Canada. MLB is one of the major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada and is considered the premier professional basebal
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Major League Baseball rivalries
Throughout its history, Major League Baseball has featured numerous rivalries between teams and cities. These rivalries have developed for a variety of reasons, most commonly geographic proximity, frequent competition, specific incidents, and cultural, linguistic, or national affiliations.
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Major League Baseball rostersA Major League Baseball roster is a list of players who are allowed, by league agreement, to play for a Major League Baseball (MLB) team. Each MLB team maintains two rosters: an active roster of players eligible to participate in an MLB game, and an expanded roster encompassing the active roster plus additional reserve players.
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MLB at Rickwood FieldMLB at Rickwood Field: A Tribute to the Negro Leagues was a Major League Baseball (MLB) specialty game played between the National League (NL) West's San Francisco Giants and the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals on June 20, 2024. The game was played at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama, the former home of the Negro leagues' Birmingham Black Barons, one d
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MLB: RBIs Leader" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$775 in lifetime turnover and $103K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mlb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MLB: RBIs Leader"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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