Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| NHS | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Poverty | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Shadow Secretary | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Ukraine | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Brexit | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Anti-Semitism / Anti-Semitic | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Oil / Gas | 42% YES | 58% NO |
Prime Minister's Questions occurs every Wednesday when Parliament is in session, with Keir Starmer participating as the sitting Prime Minister. The market resolves affirmatively if he uses a specified term during the next scheduled PMQs event, regardless of context or grammatical form. The settlement window extends to May 2026, covering multiple parliamentary sessions across the remainder of this Parliament.
Historical PMQs transcripts show that certain terms appear with high frequency depending on parliamentary focus and government priorities. Opposition-led questioning typically centres on cost-of-living pressures, NHS performance, and public sector strikes—topics that naturally prompt particular vocabulary from the Prime Minister. The 85% implied probability on the order book reflects confidence that the specified term will surface during routine parliamentary exchanges, though this depends on which particular word is being tracked. Terms related to economic policy, public services, or government initiatives tend to appear consistently across multiple PMQs sessions, whereas more niche terminology may require specific parliamentary circumstances to trigger usage.
The next PMQs session occurs on the scheduled Wednesday in the Commons Chamber, with timing dependent on the parliamentary calendar and any recesses. Recent reporting from Parliament.uk confirms the regular Wednesday schedule continues uninterrupted. Traders should monitor whether parliamentary business shifts focus toward topics that would naturally incorporate the specified term—such as Budget announcements, departmental crises, or opposition campaigns targeting particular policy areas. The probability formation reflects base rates from recent PMQs transcripts and the likelihood that standard government messaging will incorporate the term during routine questioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for mention markets contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $563 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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