Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeongsangbuk Province. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lee Cheol-woo | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Oh Joong-ki | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
South Korea will hold its provincial gubernatorial election for Gyeongsangbuk Province on 3 June 2026. The winner will serve as the province's chief executive, overseeing one of South Korea's major regions. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 82% probability for a specific candidate, reflecting market participants' assessment of the electoral landscape roughly eighteen months ahead of the vote.
Gyeongsangbuk Province has historically been a stronghold for the conservative party, though regional politics have shifted considerably over recent election cycles. The 2022 gubernatorial election saw the conservative candidate secure the seat with approximately 55% of the vote in a competitive race. Current probability readings suggest the market is pricing in either a clear favourite emerging from the ruling party or a structural advantage in the region that outweighs uncertainty. Comparable provincial elections in South Korea typically see significant movement in implied probabilities as the election approaches, particularly following party primary results and candidate announcements.
Key catalysts for traders include the ruling and opposition parties' official candidate nominations, expected to occur in late 2025 or early 2026, alongside any major policy announcements or regional scandals affecting the incumbent administration. The settlement window closes on 3 June 2026 at 06:00 UTC, with final resolution dependent on official results from South Korean electoral authorities. Any delays in official certification beyond 31 January 2027 would trigger resolution to "Other".
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$131 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for main election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $131 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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