Trade: China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $21K
- Total Volume
- $14K
- 24h Volume
- $5K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| 4.0-4.3% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 4.6-4.9% | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| 5.2-5.5% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 5.8-6.1% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <4.0% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.3-4.6% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 4.9-5.2% | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| 5.5-5.8% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
China's National Bureau of Statistics will release preliminary Q2 2026 GDP figures on 16 July 2026, reporting the year-on-year growth rate for the world's second-largest economy. The market currently shows 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders are pricing in either a specific outcome below the lowest bracket or extreme uncertainty about settlement mechanics. This zero probability reflects either a consensus view among liquidity providers or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price.
China's GDP growth has ranged between 4% and 6% annually over the past three years, with quarterly volatility driven by seasonal adjustments and policy shifts. The 0% reading on this market warrants scrutiny—it may indicate that the lowest bracket threshold sits above consensus forecasts, or that the market structure itself (with bracket-based settlement) has created pricing distortions. Historical precedent suggests Chinese official growth figures rarely fall below 4%, though the exact Q2 2026 outcome depends heavily on property sector stabilisation, export demand, and domestic consumption trajectories established through 2025 and early 2026.
Key catalysts include monthly industrial production and retail sales data released in the months preceding the GDP announcement, along with any policy announcements from the State Council or People's Bank of China regarding stimulus measures. The scheduled release date is firm, though traders should monitor the National Bureau of Statistics website for any revisions to the publication calendar. Recent economic data releases and policy guidance through spring 2026 will provide the most direct signals for positioning ahead of the July settlement window.
Wikipedia Context
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Historical GDP of China
This article includes a list of China's historical gross domestic product (GDP) values, the market value of all final goods and services produced by a nation in a given year. The GDP dollar estimates presented here are either calculated at market or government official exchange rates (nominal), or derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations. This
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China Global Television Network
China Global Television Network (CGTN) is one of three branches of state-run China Media Group and the international division of China Central Television (CCTV). Headquartered in Beijing, CGTN broadcasts news in multiple languages. CGTN is under the control of the Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party.
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China Girl (song)"China Girl" is a song written by Iggy Pop and David Bowie in 1976, and first released by Pop on his debut solo album, The Idiot (1977). Inspired by an affair Pop had with a Vietnamese woman, the lyrics tell a story of unrequited love for the protagonist's Asian girlfriend, realizing by the end that his Western influences are corrupting her. Like the rest of
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China–Pakistan relationsDiplomatic relations between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan were established in 1950, when the Dominion of Pakistan was among the first countries to sever diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (ROC) government in favour of recognizing the PRC as the legitimate representative of China. Since then, relations
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$14K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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