Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Liga Regional Norte (LRN) 2026 Split 1. If the 2026 Split 1 is postponed after July 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fuego | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| Icon Esports | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zeu5 Esports | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Polar Squad Esports | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SDM Tigres | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| LYON Academy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| G3V E-sports | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Other | — | |
Liga Regional Norte (LRN) is the primary professional League of Legends competition for the North American region, encompassing teams from Mexico and Central America. The 2026 Split 1 championship will determine the regional champion before the settlement window closes on 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability for a decisive winner being crowned by the deadline, suggesting traders assess a relatively low risk of postponement, cancellation, or administrative complications that would trigger an "Other" resolution.
Historical precedent from LRN and comparable regional competitions indicates that Riot Games maintains consistent scheduling discipline for Split 1 tournaments, typically concluding finals by mid-June. The 2025 LRN Split 1 concluded on schedule without material delays, establishing a baseline for operational reliability. However, unforeseen circumstances—including player visa issues, facility disruptions, or force majeure events—have occasionally affected regional tournaments elsewhere. The 82% probability reflects confidence in standard execution whilst acknowledging non-trivial tail risk.
Traders should monitor Riot Games' official announcements regarding the 2026 LRN schedule, team roster confirmations, and any mid-season disruptions that could cascade into playoff delays. Visa processing timelines for international players and potential venue changes would represent material catalysts. The settlement window's hard cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on 7 July 2026 creates a narrow margin for extended playoffs or tiebreaker scenarios, making schedule adherence the primary variable determining whether the market resolves to a specific winner or defaults to "Other."
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "LRN 2026 Split 1 Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for league of legends contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: