Trade: Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $16
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| <2 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| 4+ | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 2-3 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Market context
North Korea's missile testing cadence remains a central indicator of regime intentions and technical progress. The market settles on the number of distinct calendar days in May 2026 when the DPRK conducts launches of ballistic, cruise, or anti-ship missiles—a narrow definition excluding air defence systems and artillery. The current order book implies a 52% probability of at least one test day occurring during the month, reflecting genuine uncertainty about both operational tempo and political circumstances nine months forward.
Historical patterns show North Korea's testing frequency correlates with diplomatic cycles and seasonal military exercises. Between 2022 and 2024, the regime conducted missile tests on roughly 15–20 distinct days annually, with clustering around spring and autumn months when regional military drills intensify. The 2023 period saw elevated activity following US-South Korean joint exercises, whilst diplomatic engagement windows typically coincide with reduced testing. May specifically has hosted multiple test events in prior years, including the 2022 hypersonic missile series and 2024 intermediate-range launches, establishing it as a plausible testing month rather than an anomaly.
Traders should monitor announcements from Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff and US intelligence assessments regarding North Korean military readiness through early 2026. The regime's resource constraints, sanctions enforcement, and any shifts in US-DPRK diplomatic posturing will shape decisions on test scheduling. Regional military exercise calendars—particularly US-South Korean springtime drills—historically trigger North Korean responses. Technical setbacks or successes in prior months could accelerate or delay May activity, making intelligence assessments from February through April 2026 critical inputs for position adjustment.
Wikipedia Context
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Number Portability Administration Center
The Number Portability Administration Center (NPAC) is a function of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States. It administers the routing of telephone calls and text messages (SMS) for the telecommunications industry and its customers in the regions of the North American Numbering Plan. As such, it facilitates local number portability
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Local number portability
Local number portability (LNP) for fixed lines, and full mobile number portability (FMNP) for mobile phone lines, refers to the ability of a "customer of record" of an existing fixed-line or mobile telephone number assigned by a local exchange carrier (LEC) to reassign the number to another carrier, move it to another location, or change the type of service
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Number One of ThreeNumber One of Three is the first studio album of the project The Body Lovers / The Body Haters, released on April 21, 1998, by Atavistic and Young God Records. The album was released under the name "The Body Lovers". Last Sigh Magazine gave the album a positive write-up and said "there are VERY few things I've ever heard quite this enigmatic and beautiful."
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40 (number)
40 (forty) is the natural number following 39 and preceding 41.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kim jong un contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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