Trade: JOLTS Job Openings — April 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings in the United States in April 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This market will resolve to the bracket containing the seasonally adjusted total number of job openings for the total nonfarm sector in April 2026, as reported in the monthly JOLTS report published by the BLS. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/jlt/), currently scheduled to be released on June 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| <6.5M | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 6.6M–6.7M | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 6.8M–6.9M | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 7.0M–7.1M | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 7.2M+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 6.5M–6.6M | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| 6.7M–6.8M | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| 6.9M–7.0M | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Market context
The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release its April 2026 JOLTS report in early June, disclosing the seasonally adjusted count of job openings across the total nonfarm sector. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 2% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that April's opening count will fall within a specific bracket—likely one of the lower-bound ranges given the modest odds. This probability formation reflects expectations about labour market tightness roughly nine months forward from the market's creation date.
Historical JOLTS data shows job openings have fluctuated considerably with economic conditions. The series peaked near 12 million openings in 2022 before moderating through 2023 and 2024 as the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle cooled demand. Recent readings have stabilised in the 8–9 million range, though seasonal patterns in April typically show modest variation. Traders assessing the 2% probability should consider whether April 2026 openings are expected to deviate significantly from this established trend or fall into an outlier bracket entirely.
The trajectory between now and June 2026 will be shaped by Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation data releases, and monthly employment reports that signal labour market momentum. Any recession or significant demand shock would compress openings downward; conversely, unexpected economic resilience could sustain them. The BLS publishes JOLTS data with a one-month lag, so March 2026 labour market conditions will be the primary driver of April's reported figure.
Wikipedia Context
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Jolsobi
Jolsobi is an Assamese language film directed and written by debutant independent filmmaker Jaicheng Jai Dohutia and produced by Mayamara Productions in association with Arman Productions, FunDeMental Studios and Mogador Film. The film is based on gender equality a massive issue and a worldwide injustice.
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John Sjoberg
John Sjoberg was a Scottish footballer who played 15 seasons for Leicester City between 1958 and 1973. Sjoberg joined the Foxes from Scottish amateur side Banks O' Dee in August 1958 and went on to play 413 first-team matches for Leicester. He played mostly as a full-back but transitioned to centre-half towards the end of his career.
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UndeclaredUndeclared is an American sitcom created by Judd Apatow, which aired on Fox from September 25, 2001, to March 12, 2002. The show has developed a cult following, and in 2012, Entertainment Weekly listed it at #16 in the "25 Best Cult TV Shows from the Past 25 Years".
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "JOLTS Job Openings — April 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for jolts contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "JOLTS Job Openings — April 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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