Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked…
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 54%, making this a coinflip market (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $843 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Audias Flores-Silva | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 49% YES | 52% NO |
The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) remains Mexico's most powerful criminal organisation by revenue and territorial reach. Whether one or more of its identified leadership will be arrested or detained through 31 December 2026 depends on sustained enforcement operations by Mexican federal authorities, Interpol coordination, and potential extradition proceedings. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability, suggesting traders assess meaningful but uncertain odds of at least one arrest within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for forecasting cartel leadership arrests. The capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán in 2016 followed years of evasion and required sustained international cooperation; conversely, many CJNG lieutenants have operated with relative impunity despite known identities. Mexico's extradition rate to the United States has fluctuated based on political will and judicial capacity. The Mexican government's 2024–2025 security strategy emphasised dismantling cartel structures, though enforcement effectiveness varies significantly by state and federal agency.
Traders should monitor Mexico's federal law enforcement announcements, particularly from the National Guard and Attorney General's office, alongside any US State Department rewards programme updates or indictments naming CJNG leaders. Recent reporting from Reuters and local Mexican press indicates ongoing operations against mid-level CJNG figures, though top leadership typically maintains operational distance from direct involvement. Changes in bilateral US–Mexico security cooperation, judicial reforms affecting detention procedures, or cartel leadership transitions could shift arrest probabilities materially before the February 2026 settlement window closes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 February 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($843 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$143K in lifetime turnover and $843 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for jalisco new generation cartel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $60K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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