Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | 12% YES | 88% NO |
The Abraham Accords framework, launched in 2020, has so far brought four countries into formal normalisation agreements with Israel: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. The question is whether at least one additional nation will join this grouping by end of June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 12% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism among traders that another signatory will emerge within the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent suggests expansion cycles in the Accords have been episodic rather than continuous. The initial wave saw two signings within weeks in September 2020, followed by Morocco and Sudan in late 2020. Since then, despite periodic diplomatic signals from various Middle Eastern and North African states, no further formal accessions have materialised across nearly four years. This pattern indicates that whilst political will exists in pockets, the structural barriers—domestic opposition, competing regional alignments, and the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian question—remain substantial. The 12% probability reflects this historical scarcity of new signings relative to the frequency of diplomatic overtures.
Near-term catalysts centre on Saudi Arabia, which has engaged in sustained US-mediated talks but has not committed publicly to a timeline. Any formal announcement from Riyadh would substantially shift market pricing. Traders should monitor statements from the incoming Trump administration, which has signalled renewed focus on Middle Eastern normalisation, and watch for developments in Israeli-Palestinian tensions that could either accelerate or derail negotiations. Recent reporting suggests Saudi conditions remain unmet, making movement by mid-2026 contingent on significant diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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