Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? | 45% YES | 55% NO |
Nawaf Salam became Lebanon's Prime Minister in October 2024, tasked with navigating the country's severe economic crisis, fractured political system, and the aftermath of conflict with Israel. The 46% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether he will remain in post through 2026, with traders currently pricing roughly even odds of his departure within the next two years.
Lebanese Prime Ministers have faced substantial turnover, with the position historically vulnerable to shifts in parliamentary coalitions, Hezbollah's political influence, and external pressures. Salam's predecessors served highly variable tenures—Saad Hariri's most recent stint lasted under two years, whilst others departed amid security crises or factional disputes. The current political environment remains fragmented, with Hezbollah weakened but still influential, and the country's economic stabilisation efforts dependent on IMF negotiations and donor coordination. These structural factors create persistent removal risk independent of Salam's performance.
Key catalysts include parliamentary confidence votes, which can be triggered by coalition shifts or major policy disputes; announcements regarding IMF bailout conditions, which could provoke domestic opposition; and any escalation in Israeli-Lebanese tensions that destabilises the government. The December 2024 ceasefire agreement with Israel remains fragile, and its implementation through 2025-2026 will test Salam's political durability. Traders should monitor Lebanese parliamentary dynamics closely, particularly any statements from Hezbollah or Shia parties regarding government support, as these will likely move the probability substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$119 in lifetime turnover and $728 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 45%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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