Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | 86% YES | 14% NO |
Israel and Lebanon have maintained a ceasefire since November 2024 following intensive cross-border conflict, with UN-brokered arrangements governing the demilitarisation of southern Lebanon. A direct diplomatic meeting between Israeli and Lebanese officials would represent a significant escalation in normalisation efforts beyond the current military de-escalation framework. The market currently reflects 90% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders assess such a meeting as highly likely within the 18-month window through May 2026.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. Israel and Lebanon last held substantive direct talks in the 1990s during the Oslo process, though subsequent decades saw primarily indirect negotiations through UN mediators and third parties. The 2006 ceasefire agreement was brokered without direct Israeli-Lebanese diplomatic engagement. However, the recent military de-escalation differs materially: it involved explicit coordination mechanisms and international oversight, creating institutional pathways that could facilitate formal diplomatic contact. Comparable regional developments—such as the 2020 UAE-Israel normalisation—occurred relatively rapidly once political conditions shifted.
Traders should monitor announcements from the Lebanese government regarding cabinet formation and international diplomatic initiatives, particularly statements from the US, France, or UN regarding mediation efforts. The implementation timeline for UN Resolution 1701 provisions, scheduled for completion by early 2026, represents a critical juncture. Any Israeli or Lebanese ministerial statements endorsing direct talks, or international pressure from the Biden or successor US administration, would signal material probability shifts. Regional escalations involving Hezbollah or Iranian-backed actors could conversely reduce the likelihood of formal diplomatic engagement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$127K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 86%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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