Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Chennai Super Kings | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Delhi Capitals | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gujarat Titans | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mumbai Indians | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Punjab Kings | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Rajasthan Royals | 7% YES | 93% NO |
The Indian Premier League's 2026 season will run from 26 March through 31 May, with ten franchises competing in a round-robin format followed by playoffs to determine a champion. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 9% probability for this specific outcome, reflecting the distributed nature of the competition across multiple teams. Each of the ten franchises—Mumbai Indians, Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals, Kolkata Knight Riders, Rajasthan Royals, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Sunrisers Hyderabad, Lucknow Super Giants, Gujarat Titans, and Punjab Kings—enters with theoretical chances, though historical performance and squad composition create material differences in expected value.
Historical IPL data shows significant concentration of titles amongst established franchises. Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings have combined for eight of the sixteen completed seasons through 2024, whilst Kolkata Knight Riders and Rajasthan Royals have each won twice. This historical skew suggests the 9% probability likely reflects a mid-tier or lower-performing franchise in the market's current structure. Comparable T20 leagues demonstrate that squad retention rules, auction outcomes, and injury patterns substantially shift probabilities year-on-year, making pre-season assessments volatile.
Traders should monitor the December 2025 IPL auction results, which will determine squad composition and reveal relative investment levels across franchises. Injury updates during the March–May window will provide material information, as will early tournament form. The settlement deadline of 31 May 2026 aligns precisely with the scheduled final, eliminating ambiguity around resolution timing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 IPL Champion" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$766K in lifetime turnover and $556K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for india contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $67K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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