Resolution criteria on PolyGram: United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Green Party candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Green Party if they are officially nominated by the Green Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Green Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Green Party will contest mayoral positions in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections scheduled for 7 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that at least one Green candidate will secure a mayoral seat in these contests, suggesting traders view this outcome as virtually certain given the party's recent electoral trajectory and candidate slate.
The Green Party has demonstrated growing electoral viability in recent local election cycles. In the 2023 local elections, Greens gained 40 seats and achieved their best-ever local authority representation, whilst in the 2024 general election they secured four parliamentary seats. This momentum, combined with their established presence in councils across England, Wales and Scotland, provides a substantive base from which mayoral candidates can compete. Historical precedent shows the party has fielded mayoral candidates in previous election cycles, though success has been limited; the current probability assessment reflects confidence in improved performance relative to prior contests.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from the Green Party and local electoral commissions as the 2026 election approaches, particularly regarding which councils will hold mayoral elections and where the party concentrates resources. The party's internal selection processes and any shifts in local political dynamics—including boundary changes or incumbent retirements—could affect competitive positioning. Recent growth in Green Party membership and local council representation, as reported through 2024-2025, will inform whether the party fields stronger candidates in mayoral contests than previously attempted.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$63K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for green contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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