Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Big John wins The Polymarket Open by a margin of 4 or more holes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Polymarket Open is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined which player finished better within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the official stream from the official channels of Bigjohngolfs and Cheddy.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills, backed by $216K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| The Polymarket Open: Will Big John cover -3.5 spread? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Polymarket Open is a golf competition featuring Big John, with this market assessing whether he will win by a margin of four or more holes. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a "Yes" resolution, indicating traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood of Big John achieving this decisive victory margin. This probability formation suggests either substantial confidence in Big John's competitive position or limited liquidity at the extremes of the probability spectrum.
Golf match-play margins of four holes or greater represent decisive victories, typically occurring when one player establishes early dominance and maintains it throughout the contest. Historical comparable cases in professional golf show that such margins are achievable but not inevitable, even for favoured competitors. The 100% pricing appears extreme relative to typical match-play outcomes, where even strong favourites face variance from shot execution, course conditions, and opponent performance. Similar markets on Polymarket covering golf events have historically shown more distributed probability curves, suggesting the current pricing may reflect thin order-book depth rather than genuine certainty.
Traders should monitor the official announcement of tournament dates and participant confirmation, as the market contains a June 14, 2026 deadline for event completion. Any postponement beyond this date triggers a 50-50 resolution. Course conditions, weather forecasts closer to the event date, and any updates regarding Big John's form or health status would constitute material information. The resolution mechanism depends on official streams from Bigjohngolfs and Cheddy channels, so clarification on streaming reliability and accessibility would be relevant for traders assessing execution risk.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/allheartgolfs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
Most PolyGram markets clear winning USDC to traders within a few hours of the resolution date, gated only by the UMA optimistic oracle's two-hour dispute window.
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://kick.com/allheartgolfs), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "The Polymarket Open: Will Big John cover -3.5 spread?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($216K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "The Polymarket Open: Will Big John cover -3.5 spread?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$208 in lifetime turnover and $216K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for golf contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $97 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/allheartgolfs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "The Polymarket Open: Will Big John cover -3.5 spread?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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