Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Maliivka is a small settlement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, currently held by Russian forces, located roughly 100 kilometres south-east of Zaporizhzhia. The market asks whether Ukrainian forces will recapture any portion of this territory by 31 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial distance between current Ukrainian front lines and this objective, combined with the resource constraints Ukraine faces across multiple contested sectors.
Ukrainian territorial recapture has been limited since late 2022, with most gains concentrated in specific sectors where tactical advantages materialised—notably the Kharkiv counteroffensive in September 2022 and localised advances near Bakhmut and Mariupol. Maliivka sits in a relatively static sector of the front; comparable settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have seen minimal movement over the past eighteen months. The 0% probability reflects not certainty of failure but rather the low base rate of Ukrainian offensive operations achieving deep territorial gains in secondary sectors, particularly given competing demands for limited manpower and ammunition across the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in Ukrainian military capacity—particularly artillery production, Western military aid commitments, and personnel availability—alongside Russian defensive posture in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Any significant shift in the broader front dynamics, such as a Russian collapse in an adjacent sector or a major Western military commitment, could alter the calculus. The ISW map remains the sole arbiter of resolution; any Ukrainian shading of Maliivka territory would trigger a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $88 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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