Trade: Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $377
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
The US Department of Justice has periodically charged individuals accused of acting as agents of Iran's government or intelligence services, typically involving espionage, sanctions evasion, or assassination plots. The current market prices an Iranian agent indictment by end-May 2026 at 9% probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting a low but non-negligible baseline expectation. This settlement window spans roughly 18 months from typical market creation, a timeframe that encompasses both routine counterintelligence prosecutions and responses to potential escalations in US-Iran tensions.
Historical precedent suggests such charges emerge sporadically rather than predictably. Notable cases include the 2021 indictment of an Iranian intelligence officer for plotting to kidnap a US-based journalist, and the 2019 charges against an Iranian diplomat at the UN for alleged surveillance operations. These prosecutions often follow FBI investigations that span months or years before formal charges materialise. The 9% implied probability reflects scepticism that the next 18 months will yield a fresh indictment, though it acknowledges the persistent counterintelligence activity documented by US agencies.
Traders monitoring this market should track FBI and DOJ press releases, congressional testimony on Iranian espionage threats, and any public statements from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence regarding Iranian covert operations in US territory. Recent reporting from outlets including Reuters and the Wall Street Journal has highlighted Iranian plots targeting US officials, though these have not yet crystallised into announced charges. Escalations in broader US-Iran relations, sanctions enforcement actions, or disclosed intelligence operations could shift the probability materially.
Wikipedia Context
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Iranian identity bookletThe Iranian identity booklet, also known as the Shenasnameh, is one of the identity documents issued in Iran. This identity document is in booklet format and issued to Iranian citizens at birth. The National Organization for Civil Registration of Iran is obliged to issue an identity booklet to every Iranian citizen.
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Iranian identity cardThe Iranian identity card is the primary identity document in Iran. Every citizen age of 15 and above, whether resident or not, needs to apply for such a card, which bears their unique national identity number, given name, surname, birth date, and postal code. The current version of this card is called the national smart card and is the successor of the nati
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Iranian Anti-Vivisection AssociationThe Iranian Anti-Vivisection Association (IAVA) is a nonprofit nongovernmental science-based organization. It's the first animal rights advocacy group in Iran which professionally campaigns for lab animal rights. In 2012, IAVA was recognized as Iran's most active animal rights group and was awarded the Brown Bear statuette by Iran Animal Rights Watch and a
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Iranian GendarmerieThe Iranian Gendarmerie, also known as the Government Gendarmerie, was the gendarmerie, and subsequent modern highway patrol, in Iran. A paramilitary force, it also played a significant part in politics from its establishment in 1910 during the Qajar era until the advent of the Pahlavi era in 1925. It continued to serve until the end of the Pahlavi era and w
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 9% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1111 if YES resolves true — a 1011% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $377 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 9%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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