Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| December 31 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa has ruled Bahrain since 1999, first as Emir and from 2002 as King. The market tests whether he will cease to be the de facto leader of Bahrain before the end of June 2026—through removal, detention, resignation, abdication, or incapacity. The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial stability of his position and the absence of imminent succession signals.
Bahrain's monarchy has demonstrated considerable durability despite regional volatility and domestic sectarian tensions. Khalifa is 73 years old, but no serious succession crisis has materialised in recent years. Comparable cases—such as the 2011 Arab Spring protests in Bahrain—tested regime stability without displacing the King. Regional precedents like the 2004 abdication of Morocco's King Hassan II or the 2021 Tunisian presidential power consolidation show that monarchical transitions in the Middle East and North Africa remain rare events, typically requiring either explicit health crises or acute political collapse.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for announcements regarding Khalifa's health, any formal statements from the royal court about succession planning, or significant shifts in Bahrain's internal security situation. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional media outlets has not flagged imminent leadership changes. The settlement window's 18-month timeframe is relatively compressed for geopolitical regime change, which typically unfolds over longer periods unless triggered by sudden events such as severe illness or major civil unrest. The current order book pricing reflects these structural constraints.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$161K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $193 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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