Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market to predict which player will win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Player E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player J | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player K | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player N | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dylan Harper | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cooper Flagg | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Tre Johnson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025–26 NBA season will crown a Rookie of the Year following the conclusion of the regular season and playoffs. The award recognises the most outstanding first-year player across the league, determined by a voting panel of media members and fan participation. The settlement window closes on 18 May 2026, allowing sufficient time for the NBA to announce the winner, typically occurring in June during the awards ceremony preceding the Finals.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either the absence of meaningful liquidity on this particular contract or a market consensus that the listed player carries negligible chances of winning. Historical context matters here: Rookie of the Year voting has historically favoured players on playoff teams with high usage rates and statistical prominence. Recent winners such as Paolo Banchero (2022–23) and Scottie Barnes (2021–22) were lottery picks with immediate offensive responsibilities. The current probability formation suggests traders view this contract's candidate as unlikely to meet those benchmarks—either due to draft position, team circumstances, or expected playing time.
Traders should monitor the 2025–26 season's statistical leaders among first-year players, playoff seeding outcomes, and any injury developments that might alter rookie prominence. The NBA typically announces the award in early June, with voting occurring in May. Media narratives around breakout rookies often solidify during the final weeks of the regular season, making late-April and early-May reporting critical for assessing shifting probabilities before settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NBA Rookie of the Year" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4.9M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for hide from new contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 11 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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