Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for Monday, May 11, 2026 between CD Garcilaso and Club Alianza Atlético.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Club Alianza Atlético | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| CD Garcilaso | 52% YES | 49% NO |
CD Garcilaso will face Club Alianza Atlético in Peru's Liga 1 on Monday, 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Garcilaso victory at 27%, implying roughly a 73% combined probability for a draw or Alianza Atlético win. This pricing reflects the underlying strength differential between the two sides as assessed by active traders today.
Garcilaso, based in Cusco, has historically operated as a mid-table Liga 1 side with occasional playoff appearances, whilst Alianza Atlético—the Huancayo-based club—has similarly competed in the upper-middle tier. Head-to-head records and recent season form provide the primary historical anchors for assessing win probability in Peruvian domestic fixtures. The 27% probability for Garcilaso suggests traders view them as underdogs, consistent with typical pricing patterns when lower-ranked sides face stronger opponents in closed domestic leagues where fixture strength is relatively transparent.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Liga 1 fixture confirmations as the settlement window approaches. Injury announcements, squad rotations, and any fixture postponements would materially affect the probability. Recent form data from both clubs' preceding matches in late April and early May will provide concrete evidence of current playing condition. Additionally, any managerial changes or tactical shifts announced in the week before the fixture could shift the order book, particularly if either side makes unexpected personnel moves that alter perceived competitive balance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$566 in lifetime turnover and $89K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $440 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: