Trade: Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC - Halftime Result
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Millwall FC and Hull City AFC, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Millwall FC | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Draw | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Hull City AFC | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Market context
Millwall FC will host Hull City AFC on 11 May 2026 in an EFL Championship fixture. The market prices the probability of a Millwall halftime lead at 41% on Polymarket's order book, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and Hull away leads. Settlement occurs at the conclusion of the first 45 minutes plus any referee-added stoppage time.
Millwall's home record and Hull's away form provide historical anchors for interpreting the current pricing. Over recent Championship seasons, Millwall has averaged approximately 1.4 goals per half at The Den, whilst Hull's away halftime performance typically yields under 0.9 goals per match. The 41% YES probability reflects a modest home advantage, though not exceptional—comparable to fixtures where the home side carries marginal tactical superiority rather than dominance. This sits within the typical range for mid-table Championship encounters where both sides possess comparable squad depth.
Traders should monitor team news releases through early May, particularly regarding injuries to key attacking personnel on either side. Hull's recent form trajectory and Millwall's fixture congestion in the weeks preceding this match will influence squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions at The Den on match day—wind and pitch state—can materially affect first-half goal-scoring patterns in the Championship. Any late-week tactical shifts announced by either manager, or unexpected absences confirmed on match day, could shift the order book significantly before the 3:00 PM ET kick-off.
Wikipedia Context
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Millwall F.C.Millwall Football Club is a professional football club in Bermondsey, South East London, England. They compete in the EFL Championship, the second level of English football. Founded as Millwall Rovers in 1885, the club has retained its name despite having last played in the Millwall area of the Isle of Dogs in 1910. From then until 1993, the club played at w
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Millwall F.C.–West Ham United F.C. rivalryThe football rivalry between Millwall and West Ham United is one of the longest-standing in English football. The two teams, then known as Millwall Athletic and Thames Ironworks, both originated in the East End of London, and were located less than three miles apart. They first played each other in the 1899–1900 FA Cup. The match was historically known as th
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Millwall Bushwackers
The Millwall Bushwackers are a hooligan football firm associated with Millwall Football Club. Millwall have a historic association with football hooliganism, which came to prevalence in the 1970s and 1980s, with a firm made up of Kent Resident known individually as a Bushwacker. The "promotion" of a "Bushwacker", usually as they aged up, was to membership in
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Millwall (ward)
Millwall was an electoral ward in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets from 1978 to 2014. The ward was first used in the 1978 elections and last used for the 2010 elections. It returned councillors to Tower Hamlets London Borough Council. The ward is known for the 1993 Millwall by-election when the first British National Party councillor was elected.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efl.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efl.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC - Halftime Result"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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