Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Yellow Submarine and REKONIX in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 8 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win the match against REKONIX. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against Yellow Submarine. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 43.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Yellow Submarine face REKONIX in the upper bracket quarterfinal of the 1win Essence Playoffs, a best-of-three Dota 2 match scheduled for 8 May 2026 at 05:00 ET. The tournament represents a significant competitive fixture within the professional Dota 2 circuit, with upper bracket positioning offering direct advancement to later playoff stages.
The 1% implied probability for Yellow Submarine reflects substantial disparity in current team assessment. REKONIX enters as the heavily favoured side, suggesting either a significant skill gap, recent form advantage, or established head-to-head record favouring the latter team. Historical Dota 2 playoff matchups at this level typically see favourites win 85–90% of encounters, though upsets remain possible in best-of-three formats where individual game variance and draft flexibility create opportunities for lower-seeded teams.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation as the settlement window approaches, given the early morning ET scheduling which occasionally prompts rescheduling announcements. Team roster stability in the weeks preceding the match matters substantially—any mid-season roster changes, player illness, or technical issues affecting either side could shift match dynamics. The seven-day delay clause in resolution terms means matches postponed beyond 15 May without completion would trigger 50-50 settlement, creating secondary risk for positions held through that threshold. Official 1win Essence Playoffs communications and team social media channels will provide scheduling updates and any format modifications.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/alohadancetv. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$328K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $319K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/alohadancetv. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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