Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nathalie Arthaud | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| Jérôme Guedj | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Delphine Batho | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Karim Bouamrane | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Philippe de Villiers | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Manuel Valls | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 13% YES | 88% NO |
France will hold its next presidential election in April 2027, with the Constitutional Council publishing an official ballot list of approved candidates ahead of the first round. This market tests whether a specific individual will appear on that official roster, with settlement occurring after the council's publication and before the election itself.
The 87% implied probability reflects relatively high confidence in ballot inclusion, a baseline supported by historical precedent. Since the Fifth Republic's establishment in 1958, most candidates who have formally declared intentions and met procedural requirements have secured ballot positions. The Constitutional Council's gatekeeping role remains largely formal; candidates are typically excluded only for failing to gather the requisite 500 sponsorships from elected officials or for administrative irregularities. The 2022 election saw all major contenders clear this threshold without controversy, establishing a pattern of inclusive ballot access for serious candidacies.
Traders should monitor the candidate's formal declaration timeline and sponsorship accumulation, as these directly determine Constitutional Council eligibility. The council typically publishes its final list approximately two weeks before the election, creating a compressed window for resolution. Key catalysts include any legal challenges to the candidate's eligibility, changes to French electoral law before 2027, or unexpected administrative obstacles. Recent reporting from France's interior ministry confirms the April 2027 date remains firm, though no formal candidacy announcements have yet occurred at this early stage. The order book's current pricing suggests the market is pricing in standard procedural completion rather than exceptional barriers to ballot access.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $157K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for france contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 April 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: