Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 7, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on May 7, 2026, is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7? | 21% YES | 79% NO |
WTI crude oil futures will close either higher or lower on 7 May 2026 compared to the prior trading day's settlement. The 48% probability assigned to an upward move reflects near-parity between bullish and bearish positioning, suggesting traders perceive roughly balanced near-term directional risk.
Daily moves in WTI futures typically range between 1–3% in normal market conditions, though geopolitical events or supply disruptions can produce sharper swings. Historical analysis of comparable single-day outcomes shows that when crude sits near technical support or resistance levels, daily directionality becomes more sensitive to overnight news and Asian-session trading activity. The current probability split indicates the market lacks conviction about May 7 specifically, suggesting either thin catalysts expected that day or offsetting technical and fundamental signals.
Traders should monitor OPEC+ production decisions and any announcements regarding sanctions or supply disruptions, as these remain primary drivers of crude volatility. US economic data releases—particularly employment figures or inflation readings—can shift energy demand expectations and influence intraday momentum. Refinery maintenance schedules and inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute, typically released mid-week, may establish directional bias heading into Thursday trading. Currency movements, particularly USD strength, warrant attention given crude's dollar denomination and its inverse correlation with greenback appreciation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$108K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $108K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 21%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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