Trade: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of June 1 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of June 1 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $7K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| ↑ $495 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $487.50 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $480 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $472.50 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| ↑ $465 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $457.50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $450 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $442.50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
Microsoft's share price will either reach or exceed a specific threshold during the week commencing 1 June 2026. The settlement window closes on 5 June at 20:00 UTC, capturing trading activity across that five-day period. Current order book depth on Polymarket reflects a 9% implied probability, suggesting the crowd assesses this outcome as unlikely under baseline conditions. The pricing reflects expectations about Microsoft's fundamental trajectory and near-term volatility in the period leading into early summer 2026.
Historical precedent matters here. Microsoft has experienced significant single-week moves during earnings seasons, product announcements, and broader tech sector rotations. The week of 1 June does not coincide with scheduled earnings releases or major conference events based on Microsoft's typical calendar, which typically concentrates announcements around Build (May), Ignite (September), and quarterly earnings windows. This structural absence of scheduled catalysts underpins the low probability—the market is pricing in a move that would require either unexpected corporate action, macroeconomic shock, or sector-wide volatility to materialise.
Traders should monitor late May developments closely. Regulatory decisions affecting cloud computing or artificial intelligence licensing could move the stock sharply. Broader equity market conditions in the final week of May will establish momentum heading into the settlement window. Any unscheduled management commentary, acquisition news, or significant client announcements in the days immediately preceding 1 June would shift the probability materially. The current 9% reflects an expectation of relative stability absent extraordinary events.
Wikipedia Context
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MicrosoftMicrosoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Redmond, Washington. The company became influential in the rise of personal computers through software like Windows and has since expanded into areas such as Internet services, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, video gaming, and more. A Big Tech company, Microsoft
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Microsoft Corp. v. AT&T Corp.
Microsoft Corp. v. AT&T Corp., 550 U.S. 437 (2007), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Supreme Court reversed a previous decision by the Federal Circuit and ruled in favor of Microsoft, holding that Microsoft was not liable for infringement on AT&T's patent under 35 U.S.C. § 271(f).
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Microsoft Corp. v. United StatesMicrosoft Corp. v. United States, known on appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court as United States v. Microsoft Corp., 584 U.S. ___, 138 S. Ct. 1186 (2018), was a data privacy case involving the extraterritoriality of law enforcement seeking electronic data under the 1986 Stored Communications Act (SCA), Title II of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 198
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Microsoft Corp. v. Internal Revenue ServiceThe lawsuit Microsoft v. Internal Revenue Service, No. 1:14-cv-01982, was filed in U.S. District Court, District of Columbia when Microsoft sued the Internal Revenue Service requesting the IRS comply with a Freedom of Information Act request. According to Microsoft the IRS "unlawfully withheld" information on a contract between law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhar
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of June 1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$7K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of June 1 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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