Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 1.40 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑ 1.35 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑ 1.30 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| ↑ 1.26 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| ↑ 1.24 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| ↑ 1.22 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| ↑ 1.20 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| ↓ 1.16 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The EUR/USD exchange rate will need to reach a specified level at some point during 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. Currently, the Polymarket order book is pricing this outcome at 8% implied probability, reflecting trader conviction that the pair is unlikely to touch this threshold over the next twelve months. The resolution mechanism tracks the highest hourly candle price on Investing.com, meaning even a single spike to the target level triggers a YES resolution, provided that candle has finalised.
Historical EUR/USD volatility offers context for assessing this probability. The pair has traded in a roughly 1.05–1.12 range over the past two years, with significant moves typically requiring material shifts in monetary policy divergence or geopolitical risk. The 8% probability suggests the target level sits meaningfully above recent trading ranges. For comparison, moves of 5–7% from current levels have occurred during periods of sharp Fed policy shifts or eurozone political uncertainty, though such moves remain relatively infrequent within single calendar years.
Key catalysts through 2026 include ECB and Federal Reserve policy decisions, which will shape interest rate differentials and capital flows. Inflation data releases, labour market reports from both economies, and any escalation in trade tensions could drive directional momentum. The timing of US presidential policy implementation and eurozone fiscal developments will also influence the pair's trajectory. Traders should monitor these scheduled announcements alongside any unexpected geopolitical developments that could trigger rapid repricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$73K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $128 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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