Trade: Lincoln International IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Lincoln International's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 20 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $493
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| <$1.75B | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| $1.75B–$2.0B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $2.0B–$2.25B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $2.25B–$2.5B | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $2.5B–$2.75B | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| $2.75B+ | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Market context
Lincoln International, a mid-market investment banking and advisory firm, is preparing for an initial public offering scheduled to price on 20 May 2026. The market will settle based on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on its first trading day, with resolution contingent on the IPO completing by 30 June 2026. Should no IPO occur within this window, the market resolves to "No IPO before July 2026". The 42% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty around both execution risk and valuation outcomes in the current capital markets environment.
Comparable IPO valuations offer limited direct precedent for Lincoln International's positioning. Investment banking boutiques have historically commanded valuations ranging from 1.2x to 2.8x revenue depending on profitability, client concentration, and market conditions. Evercore went public at approximately $1.2bn market cap in 2006; Lazard trades at roughly 1.5x revenues. Lincoln's private valuation and the timing relative to broader equity market conditions will materially influence opening-day capitalisation. The probability distribution reflects traders pricing both the execution risk of the offering and the valuation uncertainty inherent in a firm with limited public comparables.
Key catalysts include formal SEC filing announcements, roadshow activity, and any material changes to market conditions affecting investment banking demand. Broader equity market volatility, credit spreads, and M&A activity levels will influence both the likelihood of IPO completion and opening-day valuation. Recent market commentary on banking sector consolidation and advisory fee compression may also factor into how traders are positioning around the implied probability today.
Wikipedia Context
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Lincoln InternationalLincoln International LLC is a multinational independent investment bank and financial services company specializing in advisory services and financings on middle market transactions. The firm works with publicly traded and privately owned companies, financial sponsors, and lenders. The firm provides advisory services including mergers & acquisitions, capita
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Lincoln International AcademyLincoln International Academy is located in Managua, Nicaragua. It is a Catholic private school. This school that was founded in 1995. It is one of the few schools in Nicaragua that offer bilingual education (Spanish-English). LIA is accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools since February 2009. LIA is also a member of the National Catho
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Lincoln International District, Tacoma, WashingtonThe Lincoln International Business District is a neighborhood in Tacoma, Washington, near historic Lincoln High School. Centered on S. 38th St and Yakima, the Lincoln International District is home to the majority of Tacoma's Vietnamese businesses and community centers. According to the City of Tacoma, the district has 755 businesses employing more than 8,20
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Lincoln Airport (Nebraska)Lincoln Airport is a joint public/military airport five miles (8.0 km) northwest of downtown Lincoln, the state capital, in Lancaster County, Nebraska, United States. It is owned by the Lincoln Airport Authority and is the second-largest airport in Nebraska. It is included in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) National Plan of Integrated Airport Syste
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Lincoln International IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $493 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Lincoln International IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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