Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS | 37% YES | 63% NO |
The 79th Cannes Film Festival takes place in May 2026, culminating in the announcement of the Palme d'Or on 23 May. This is cinema's most prestigious competition, drawing submissions from major studios and independent producers globally. The award carries significant cultural weight and often influences subsequent awards seasons, distribution deals, and box office performance. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 29% probability for this particular film, reflecting traders' assessment against competing entries and historical patterns of jury selection.
Cannes juries have historically favoured character-driven narratives and formally ambitious work over commercial spectacle, though recent years show increased recognition of genre cinema. The 2024 Palme d'Or went to "I'm Still Here" (Brazilian), whilst 2023 saw "Anatomy of a Fall" (French-Swiss) prevail. These selections suggest juries value thematic depth and cultural specificity. The 29% implied probability positions this film as a credible contender but not the frontrunner, consistent with typical pre-festival positioning where uncertainty remains high given the jury's composition remains unannounced until closer to the event.
Key catalysts include the official selection announcement (typically March-April 2026), which determines whether this film competes in the main competition or sidebar sections. Jury composition, revealed weeks before the festival, influences expectations significantly. Critical reception during the festival run and positioning within the schedule—opening or closing film slots carry different weight—will shape trading patterns. Any major awards or recognition at earlier 2026 festivals (Berlin, Rotterdam) could shift probabilities materially as traders update their models.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for film contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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