Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026 between Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Canada | 54% YES | 47% NO |
Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on Friday, 12 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 26% probability of a Canadian victory, with the spread reflecting substantial uncertainty around both sides' form and tournament readiness heading into the competition.
Canada's World Cup pedigree remains limited; their sole prior appearance came in 1986, and they have not qualified for the tournament since. Bosnia and Herzegovina last appeared in 2014, reaching the group stage in Brazil. Both nations occupy a similar tier in recent competitive rankings, though Canada has shown incremental improvement in CONCACAF qualifying cycles over the past decade. Historical matchups between the two sides are sparse, making direct precedent of limited value. The current 26% probability assigned to Canada reflects the market's assessment that Bosnia and Herzegovina enters as a marginal favourite, though neither team is considered a strong contender within their respective confederation.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key attacking and defensive personnel. Fixture scheduling within the group stage—which determines rest periods and psychological momentum—will become clearer as FIFA releases the full group compositions. Pre-tournament friendlies in May and early June will provide the most recent form signals; both nations typically play warm-up matches in the weeks preceding the World Cup. Any significant managerial changes or domestic league disruptions affecting player availability could shift the implied probability materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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