Trade: Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
- $34K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| $600M | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| $900M | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| $100M | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| $800M | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| $300M | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| $700M | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| $1.2B | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $1.5B | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Relay's governance token will launch with public trading and transferability at some point before the settlement deadline in January 2028. The market is pricing the probability that the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated as total token supply multiplied by the traded price—will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch event. Current Polymarket order book activity implies a 30% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader expectations about post-launch valuation dynamics.
Token launch valuations vary considerably based on project positioning, pre-launch demand signals, and market conditions at the time of release. Comparable governance token launches have shown FDV ranges from tens of millions to billions depending on protocol maturity, institutional backing, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. Projects with established user bases and clear tokenomics tend to command higher initial valuations, whilst newer protocols or those launching during market downturns often see more modest FDV figures. The 30% probability on Polymarket suggests traders view a high initial valuation as less likely than a more conservative one, though this reflects current sentiment and may shift as launch approaches.
Key variables affecting settlement include the timing of Relay's launch announcement, the size of the token supply and initial distribution, and cryptocurrency market conditions in the weeks preceding launch. Traders should monitor Relay's official communications for tokenomics details and launch scheduling. The resolution hinges on the most liquid price source available one day after public trading begins, meaning secondary market depth and trading volume will determine the final FDV calculation rather than any single exchange price.
Wikipedia Context
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Relay For Life
Relay For Life is a community-based fundraising event for the American Cancer Society (ACS). Teams of people, varying in size, alternate between walking laps and interacting with other aspects of the fundraiser. Each year, more than 5,000 Relay For Life events are held in local communities, university campuses, and as virtual campaigns over twenty countries.
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Relay valve
A relay valve is an air-operated valve typically used in air brake systems to remotely control the brakes at the rear of a heavy truck or semi-trailer in a tractor-trailer combination. Relay valves are necessary in heavy trucks in order to speed-up rear-brake application and release, since air takes longer to travel to the rear of the vehicle than the front
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Relay (film)Relay is a 2024 American thriller film directed by David Mackenzie and written by Justin Piasecki. Starring Riz Ahmed, Lily James, and Sam Worthington, the film follows a fixer who assists whistleblowers while concealing his identity through a relay service for the deaf. The film had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival on September
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Wetting current
In electrical and electronics engineering, wetting current is the minimum electric current needing to flow through a contact to break through the surface film resistance at a contact. It is typically far below the contact's nominal maximum current rating.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$34K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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