Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Apyx's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Apyx will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $50M | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| $100M | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| $200M | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| $500M | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| $1B | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| $80M | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| $150M | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| $300M | 57% YES | 43% NO |
Apyx Medical is preparing to launch a native cryptocurrency token, with market participants currently pricing a 96% probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation is straightforward: total token supply multiplied by the trading price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. Only an official Apyx token qualifies; synthetic derivatives, stablecoins, and memetic variants are excluded. The token must achieve active public trading to trigger settlement.
Historical precedent from biotech and medical device company token launches shows highly variable outcomes. When established healthcare firms have entered crypto markets, initial FDV valuations have ranged dramatically depending on tokenomics design, pre-launch hype, and institutional participation. Companies with strong existing revenue bases and brand recognition—comparable to Apyx's position in the surgical device sector—have occasionally seen conservative initial valuations that subsequently appreciated, whilst others experienced immediate dilution as early investors took profits. The 96% probability reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in a relatively modest FDV threshold, implying confidence that even modest trading volume and price discovery will clear the bar.
Key catalysts include the official announcement of launch timing, tokenomics parameters (total supply, distribution schedules, vesting), and exchange listings. Traders should monitor Apyx's investor relations channels and regulatory filings for token programme details. Market depth on Polymarket's order book will tighten substantially once launch timing becomes concrete, potentially shifting the probability as traders reassess the specific FDV threshold against anticipated initial liquidity conditions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Apyx FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$788 in lifetime turnover and $52K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $253 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: