Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for June 30, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 43%, making this a coinflip market with 27 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $9K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.8-1.9M | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 2.0M+ | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| <1.5M | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 1.5-1.6M | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.9-2.0M | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| 1.6-1.7M | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 1.7-1.8M | 20% YES | 81% NO |
The Iranian rial has experienced sustained depreciation against the US dollar over the past decade, driven by sanctions, capital controls, and macroeconomic instability. The market is pricing a 37% probability that the USD/IRR exchange rate will fall within a specific bracket by 30 June 2026, based on current order book activity on Polymarket. This implies traders assess a 63% likelihood the rate will be higher (weaker rial) or fall outside the defined range. Bonbast's free-market rates typically diverge significantly from official central bank quotes, reflecting actual trading conditions in Iran's parallel currency markets.
Historical precedent suggests the rial's trajectory depends heavily on geopolitical developments and sanctions enforcement. Between 2015 and 2018, the rial weakened from roughly 30,000 per dollar to over 100,000 following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA. The subsequent period saw volatility tied to nuclear negotiations and oil export capacity. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty around US foreign policy continuity post-2024, Iranian domestic monetary policy responses, and potential shifts in sanctions regimes.
Key catalysts through June 2026 include announcements regarding US-Iran nuclear negotiations, oil sanctions enforcement, and Iranian central bank interventions in currency markets. Recent reporting on Iranian inflation and foreign exchange reserves will inform trader positioning. The settlement mechanism—using Bonbast's published daily figures with rounding to the higher bracket if rates fall between brackets—creates specific price sensitivity around bracket boundaries that sophisticated traders monitor closely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 30 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "USD x Iranian rials End of June?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($9K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "USD x Iranian rials End of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for exchange rate contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "USD x Iranian rials End of June?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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