Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,800 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 1,800-1,900 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot price at noon ET on 15 May 2026, using the close of the one-minute candle as the resolution source. The 3% implied probability reflects the current order book depth on Polymarket, where traders are pricing an extremely low likelihood of the outcome resolving "Yes" relative to the broader range of possible price levels Ethereum could occupy at that specific timestamp nearly eighteen months forward.
Ethereum's price discovery over multi-year horizons has historically been driven by shifts in macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and shifts in network adoption metrics rather than near-term technical patterns. The current probability distribution suggests traders view most plausible May 2026 price scenarios as falling outside the specific bracket this market covers. Comparable long-dated Ethereum price markets have shown that implied probabilities for narrow price bands typically compress as settlement approaches, with order book liquidity concentrating around price levels supported by fundamental narratives about staking yields, layer-two scaling adoption, or institutional custody developments.
Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled Ethereum protocol upgrades, regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions regarding spot ETH trading, and macroeconomic policy shifts that typically correlate with cryptocurrency valuations. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and any material changes to institutional adoption patterns—particularly among traditional finance entities holding ETH directly—would represent the most significant catalysts reshaping the probability distribution between now and settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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