Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Hanwha Life Esports and Dplus KIA in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports win the match against Dplus KIA. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win the match against Hanwha Life Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game 2 Winner | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| Match Winner | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Hanwha Life Esports face Dplus KIA in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LCK's opening rounds, scheduled for 15 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 66% implied probability favouring Hanwha Life, suggesting market participants assess them as the stronger side in this fixture. The settlement window closes at the scheduled match time, with resolution contingent on a decisive outcome; cancellations, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 split.
Hanwha Life's recent LCK performance and roster composition provide the baseline for evaluating this probability. The team has shown variable form in preceding seasons, whilst Dplus KIA—historically a competitive mid-tier LCK outfit—typically performs closer to league average. A 66% probability for Hanwha Life suggests the market prices them as moderately favoured rather than heavily dominant, consistent with matchups between teams of differing but overlapping capability tiers. Historical LCK openers often feature unpredictability due to meta shifts and preparation asymmetries, which may explain why the probability remains below 75% despite Hanwha Life's apparent edge.
Traders should monitor LCK schedule confirmations and any roster announcements in the days preceding 15 May, as last-minute changes affect match likelihood. Patch notes released before the match window could shift champion viability and favour one team's preparation depth. Technical issues or broadcast delays have occasionally affected LCK fixtures, though cancellations remain rare; the seven-day grace period in the resolution criteria provides some buffer against minor scheduling friction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lck. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $25 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lck. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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