Trade: LoL: eSuba vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

Market context

eSuba and Onion Team are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the Hitpoint Masters Regular Season on 3 May at 7:30AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for match completion, suggesting traders are pricing in minimal risk of cancellation, postponement beyond the seven-day window, or tie outcomes. This pricing reflects confidence that both teams will field rosters and the match will conclude with a decisive winner under standard competitive conditions.

The Hitpoint Masters operates as a regional competitive circuit with established scheduling protocols and venue infrastructure. Historical precedent from similar regional League of Legends competitions shows that regular season matches rarely face cancellation or extended delays once officially scheduled, particularly when both organisations maintain active rosters. The current probability formation on Polymarket's order book indicates traders are treating this as a near-certainty event, consistent with the reliability record of established esports leagues where administrative or logistical failures are uncommon.

Traders should monitor for roster announcements or player availability issues in the days preceding 3 May, as unexpected player absences or team withdrawals could trigger forfeiture conditions. The settlement window extends to 5 May at 20:10 UTC, providing a two-day buffer beyond the scheduled match time. Any official communications from Hitpoint Masters regarding venue changes, scheduling conflicts, or team status updates would materially affect the probability assessment, though the current 100% YES pricing suggests market participants view such disruptions as negligible risks at present.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/hitpointcz. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "LoL: eSuba vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$98K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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