Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Virtus.pro and Team Spirit in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 15 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Virtus.pro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% YES | 64% NO |
Virtus.pro and Team Spirit will face off in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 15 May at 1:00 PM ET. The 45% implied probability for Virtus.pro reflects a market view that Team Spirit enters as slight favourites. On Polymarket's order book, this probability has formed through recent trading activity, with the current spread suggesting meaningful uncertainty around the outcome.
Historically, these two Russian organisations have produced competitive fixtures, though Team Spirit has demonstrated stronger recent form in tier-one tournaments. Team Spirit's 2023–2024 campaign included consistent placements in major events, whilst Virtus.pro has faced roster stability challenges. The current 45% for Virtus.pro aligns with their underdog positioning relative to Team Spirit's recent trajectory, though DreamLeague Group A matches often feature tighter competition than headline tournaments suggest.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the 15 May fixture, as Dota 2 teams occasionally field stand-ins for group-stage matches. Patch changes or meta shifts in the days preceding the match could also shift preparation advantages. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 15 May, allowing seven days for match completion; any delay beyond 22 May without a decisive result triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current liquidity on the order book will likely tighten as the match approaches, particularly if either team releases recent scrim results or public statements about their preparation.
Data virtualization is an approach to data management that allows an application to retrieve and manipulate data without requiring technical details about the data, such as how it is formatted at source, or where it is physically located, and can provide a single customer view of the overall data.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$450 in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $450 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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