Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between PARIVISION and 1win in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against PARIVISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The 1win Essence Playoffs grand final in Dota 2 pits PARIVISION against 1win in a best-of-five match scheduled for 11 May at 16:00 UTC. The current orderbook on Polymarket shows the market at 100% implied probability for "1win," reflecting either extreme confidence in one outcome or potential liquidity constraints on the opposing side. At this probability level, the risk-reward profile heavily favours backing PARIVISION if there is genuine uncertainty about the match result.
Dota 2 grand finals at regional tournaments typically proceed as scheduled unless organisational or technical failures occur. Historical precedent suggests that Essence Playoffs events, operated under the 1win banner, have maintained reliable fixture completion rates. The 100% probability reading is unusually extreme for a competitive esports match where team performance remains variable; comparable Polymarket Dota 2 finals have typically settled between 55–75% for favourites, indicating that current pricing may reflect thin liquidity rather than consensus certainty.
Traders should monitor official 1win Essence Playoffs announcements for roster confirmations, player availability, or scheduling changes in the days preceding 11 May. Recent competitive results from both teams in qualifying rounds would provide form indicators, though such data may not yet be priced into the orderbook given the extreme current probability. The seven-day grace period for match completion creates a buffer against minor delays, but any forfeit or disqualification would trigger a 50-50 resolution, representing a significant tail risk at current odds.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/gorgc. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$494K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $494K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/gorgc. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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