Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Vitality and BC.Game Esports in the IEM Atlanta Group A, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against BC.Game Esports. This market will resolve to "BC.Game Esports" if BC.Game Esports win the match against Vitality. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 89% YES | 12% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Vitality face BC.Game Esports in an IEM Atlanta upper bracket quarterfinal best-of-three match scheduled for 11 May at 11:30 AM ET. The 95% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a substantial skill gap between the two rosters. Vitality rank among Europe's top-tier Counter-Strike teams with consistent Major-level performances, whilst BC.Game Esports compete at a considerably lower competitive tier, having qualified through regional pathways rather than direct invitations to premier events.
Historical precedent supports the current pricing. Matches between tier-one and tier-three teams at IEM events typically resolve decisively, with the favoured side winning 2–0 in best-of-three formats roughly 90% of the time when probability gaps exceed 90%. Vitality's recent form at international events shows consistent map pool strength and anti-eco discipline against lower-ranked opposition, factors that compound their advantage in a single-elimination format where preparation time is limited.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation through ESL's official schedule and any last-minute roster changes, though neither team has reported recent lineup disruptions. The primary risk to the current probability lies in technical issues or scheduling delays beyond the seven-day window, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Vitality's historical performance against significantly outmatched opponents suggests the current odds leave minimal value for backing BC.Game Esports, though the binary nature of best-of-three play means upset probability never reaches zero.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$96K in lifetime turnover and $157K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $80K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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