Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between SemperFi Esports and Change The Game in the Asian Champions League Group B, initially scheduled for May 11 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "SemperFi Esports" if SemperFi Esports win the match against Change The Game. This market will resolve to "Change The Game" if Change The Game win the match against SemperFi Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: SFE (-1.5) vs Change The Game (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
SemperFi Esports face Change The Game in an upper bracket quarterfinal of the Asian Champions League Group B Counter-Strike competition, scheduled for 11 May at 05:00 ET. The best-of-three format determines advancement in what remains a developing regional esports circuit. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 100% implied probability for SemperFi, indicating traders have priced in an overwhelming expectation of victory.
The Asian Counter-Strike competitive landscape has historically favoured established organisations with consistent roster stability and tournament infrastructure. SemperFi Esports operates within this context as a recognised regional competitor, whilst Change The Game represents a less documented entry in available match records. When examining comparable upper bracket quarterfinals across Asian esports tournaments, teams with stronger historical performance records and documented recent results typically command probability premiums of this magnitude, though such certainty often reflects information asymmetries rather than genuine match certainty.
Traders should monitor several variables through the settlement window closing 11 May at 18:30 UTC. Roster changes or player availability announcements in the days preceding the match could shift market expectations materially. Technical delays or scheduling conflicts have affected Asian esports tournaments previously; the seven-day grace period for match completion provides buffer against minor postponements but not extended cancellations. Live match performance data will emerge only at fixture time, making pre-match information the primary driver of any probability adjustment from current levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.huya.com/18525153. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Change The Game (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.huya.com/18525153. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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