Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between TheMongolz and Spirit in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 51% NO |
TheMongolz and Spirit will face off in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the PGL Astana Group Stage, scheduled for 10 May at 04:00 ET. The current Polymarket order book prices TheMongolz at 26 per cent implied probability, reflecting Spirit as the favoured side. This is a Round 2 group stage fixture where both teams will be competing for advancement and seeding position in a major LAN tournament.
Spirit have established themselves as a top-tier European Counter-Strike outfit with consistent performances at premier events, whilst TheMongolz represent the stronger Asian region contingent. Historical matchups between regional powerhouses at PGL events typically favour established European squads, particularly in best-of-three formats where map pool depth and tactical preparation become decisive. The current 26 per cent probability for TheMongolz reflects this structural advantage for Spirit, though the Mongolian side has demonstrated capacity to upset higher-ranked opponents in group stage environments where preparation variance is higher.
Traders should monitor official PGL communications regarding any schedule adjustments, as the early morning ET start time creates potential for delays. Team roster confirmations and any last-minute stand-in announcements would materially affect the matchup dynamics. Recent form indicators from both squads' performances in the preceding days of the tournament will provide concrete data on current condition and morale, particularly given the compressed schedule of group stage play where fatigue becomes a tangible factor.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$142K in lifetime turnover and $413K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $142K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: