Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinals match between Kinoa and Prestige in the European Pro League Regular Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Kinoa" if Kinoa win the match against Prestige. This market will resolve to "Prestige" if Prestige win the match against Kinoa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs Kinoa (+1.5) | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Kinoa face Prestige in an upper bracket quarterfinals match within the European Pro League's regular playoffs, a best-of-three series scheduled for 15 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Kinoa's victory at 36%, implying Prestige are favoured at 64%. This probability reflects real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders have positioned themselves ahead of the match.
European Counter-Strike rosters have shown considerable volatility in recent seasons, with mid-tier teams frequently producing upset results in playoff formats. Prestige's positioning as the implied favourite suggests traders view them as the more established or consistent performer, though the 36% probability for Kinoa indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Historical data from comparable European Pro League matches shows that upper bracket quarterfinals often produce tighter contests than their seeding might suggest, particularly when roster changes or recent form shifts have occurred within the preceding weeks.
Key catalysts for traders monitoring this market include any roster announcements or player absences in the days preceding 15 May, recent head-to-head results between the teams, and broader tournament momentum from earlier playoff rounds. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions based on pre-match information. Delayed or cancelled matches default to 50-50 resolution, creating additional risk for positions held into the settlement deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://hltv.org. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs Prestige (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $945 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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