Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Keyd and MIBR Academy in the Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 2 at 5:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Keyd" if Keyd win the match against MIBR Academy. This market will resolve to "MIBR Academy" if MIBR Academy win the match against Keyd. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Keyd and MIBR Academy are scheduled to meet in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage on 2 May at 5:30PM ET. The match represents a domestic Brazilian fixture within a regional tournament structure. Current order book activity on Polymarket has pushed the implied probability to 100% YES, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that Keyd will prevail, though this extreme probability warrants scrutiny given the binary nature of competitive matches and the inherent uncertainty in esports outcomes.
Brazilian Counter-Strike academy and developmental teams have historically shown volatile performance trajectories, with roster changes and player development cycles creating unpredictable results. MIBR Academy, as a feeder organisation to the established MIBR franchise, typically fields emerging talent, whilst Keyd operates as an independent competitive entity. Historical matchups between academy-tier and independent Brazilian teams demonstrate that skill gaps can narrow considerably depending on recent roster moves and individual player form, making 100% probability unusual for any competitive fixture without extraordinary circumstances such as confirmed forfeit.
Traders should monitor for roster announcements, player availability confirmations, or tournament schedule changes through official Odyssey Cup channels and team social media prior to the 2 May fixture. The settlement window extends to 3 May at 03:30 UTC, providing a 22-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time. Any match delay exceeding seven days from the original date triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating a distinct risk vector if tournament organisers encounter scheduling conflicts or technical disruptions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/kabrafps. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Keyd vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Odyssey Cup Brazil Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/kabrafps. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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