Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Aurora Gaming and The Huns Esports in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against The Huns Esports. This market will resolve to "The Huns Esports" if The Huns Esports win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% YES | 100% NO |
Aurora Gaming and The Huns Esports are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 10 May at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Aurora Gaming's victory, indicating the market has priced in an extremely decisive outcome. This extreme probability typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage or when information asymmetries favour one side heavily amongst active traders.
Aurora Gaming, a Kazakhstan-based organisation, has established itself as a consistent performer in regional and international Counter-Strike competitions, whilst The Huns Esports represents a less prominent competitive tier. Historical precedent suggests that when established regional powerhouses face lower-ranked opponents in group-stage formats, markets often overshoot probability estimates, particularly in early trading windows. However, upsets in best-of-three formats occur with measurable frequency—approximately 15–20% of matches where the favourite carries 80%+ implied probability result in underdog victories, according to historical esports betting data.
Traders should monitor several variables before settlement on 10 May. Roster changes or last-minute player absences could alter competitive balance substantially. The specific map pool for this fixture and recent head-to-head results between these organisations warrant attention, as does any official announcement regarding schedule delays. The seven-day resolution window provides buffer for rescheduling, but technical issues or unforeseen circumstances during the broadcast could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. Current pricing leaves minimal margin for alternative outcomes, suggesting limited value unless new information emerges regarding team preparation or player availability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/pgl_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$207K in lifetime turnover and $1.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $207K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/pgl_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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