Trade: Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Walmart is estimated to release earnings on May 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Walmart’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.66 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Walmart reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.66 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Walmart releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $29
- Total Volume
- $2
- 24h Volume
- $2
- Open Interest
- $2
Market outcomes
| Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? | 83% YES | 17% NO |
Market context
Walmart will report its quarterly earnings on 21 May 2026, with the market resolving based on whether non-GAAP EPS exceeds the Street consensus estimate of $0.66. The current order book on Polymarket prices an 85% probability of a beat, reflecting confidence in the retailer's execution relative to analyst expectations. This probability is formed through active trading on the platform, where buyers and sellers continuously adjust positions based on incoming information and their assessments of Walmart's likely performance.
Walmart has historically beaten earnings estimates with regularity, particularly on the EPS metric. Over the past eight quarters, the company has exceeded consensus in most periods, supported by consistent same-store sales growth and operational leverage in its core retail and advertising segments. The 85% implied probability sits above Walmart's historical beat rate, suggesting the market is pricing in either stronger-than-typical execution or a conservative consensus estimate. Comparable large-cap retailers have shown similar patterns, though Walmart's scale and diversified revenue streams (including high-margin advertising) have generally supported more reliable beats than peers.
Key catalysts between now and earnings include any guidance revisions from management, macroeconomic data affecting consumer spending, and quarterly comp-store sales trends. Walmart typically provides limited forward guidance, so investor focus will centre on same-store sales momentum, gross margin trends, and advertising revenue growth—all areas where the company has recently outperformed. Supply chain disruptions, labour cost inflation, and competitive pricing pressures remain structural risks that could pressure margins and EPS, though these have not materially derailed recent quarters.
Wikipedia Context
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Walmart Watch
Walmart Watch, formed in the spring of 2005, was a joint project of the Center for Community and Corporate Ethics, a nonprofit organization studying the impact of large corporations on society, and its advocacy arm, Five Stones. The Walmart Watch group was based in Washington with the claimed goal to challenge Walmart to become a better employer, neighbor, a
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WalmartWalmart Inc. is an American multinational retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores in the United States and 19 other countries. It is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. The company was founded in 1962 by brothers Sam Walton and James "Bud" Walton in nearby Rogers, Arkansas. It also owns and
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Criticism of WalmartThe American multinational retail chain Walmart has received criticism from parties such as labor unions and small town advocates for its policies and business practices.
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Walmart Arkansas Music PavilionThe Walmart Arkansas Music Pavilion is an outdoor amphitheater located in Rogers, Arkansas. The venue opened in June 2005 as a semi-permanent venue, becoming a permanent venue in 2014. Its capacity is 11,000 fans.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 83% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $120 if YES resolves true — a 20% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2 in lifetime turnover and $29 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for equities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 83%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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