Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.136 - 1.161m | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| 1.186 - 1.211m | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 1.236 - 1.261m | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| <1.136m | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 1.161 - 1.186m | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| 1.211 - 1.236m | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| >1.286m | 6% YES | 95% NO |
Miami's median home value will be determined by Parcl Labs' Sales Price Index on 31 May 2026, converted to a dollar figure using a standardised calculation of price per square foot multiplied by 2,100 square feet. The market currently reflects 47% probability on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders are pricing meaningful uncertainty around whether the median will reach the specified threshold. Settlement depends entirely on official Parcl publication by 10 June 2026, with no alternative resolution source specified.
Miami's property market has experienced significant volatility since 2020, with median values climbing sharply through 2021–2022 before moderating amid rising interest rates. The median home price peaked near $610,000 in 2022 before declining roughly 15–20% through 2023–2024 as affordability constraints tightened. Recent data from the Miami Association of Realtors indicates stabilisation in early 2025, though price momentum remains subdued relative to the pandemic-era surge. Historical precedent suggests that 18-month forward projections in this market carry substantial variance, particularly given sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy and mortgage rate trajectories.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and inflation data through early 2026, as rate expectations directly influence buyer demand and pricing power. Miami-specific catalysts include new residential supply completions, which have accelerated significantly and may exert downward pressure on median values. Employment trends in South Florida's financial services and tech sectors will also influence migration patterns and demand. Parcl's methodology and any methodological changes announced before publication warrant close attention, as calculation adjustments could materially affect the final settlement figure.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the median home value in Miami be on May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$374 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: