Trade: Bank of England decision in July?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $358
- 24h Volume
- $50
- Open Interest
- $321
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps decrease | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| No change | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 30% YES | 71% NO |
Market context
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will meet on 30 July 2026 to decide on the Bank Rate. This market resolves based on whether the committee changes the rate at that meeting, with the outcome determined by the official MPC statement released that day. The 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong market conviction that no change will occur, pricing in a hold as the base case scenario.
The MPC has demonstrated considerable caution in recent decision cycles, with extended holding periods becoming the norm as inflation dynamics stabilise and economic growth remains subdued. Historical precedent suggests that between-meeting rate adjustments are rare; the committee typically signals intentions well in advance through forward guidance and summary band language. The current pricing aligns with patterns observed in 2023–2024, when the MPC maintained steady rates for multiple consecutive meetings despite market speculation about moves.
Traders should monitor June's inflation data release (scheduled for mid-July), which will be the final CPI print before the decision and could shift expectations materially. Employment figures and wage growth announcements in the preceding weeks will also carry weight, particularly given the MPC's stated focus on labour market dynamics. Sterling movements and gilt yields will provide real-time market signals about repricing expectations. The committee's forward guidance language at the June meeting will establish the baseline against which July's decision is assessed; any material shift in economic data between meetings would be required to justify the low probability currently implied.
Wikipedia Context
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Bank of EnglandThe Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom and the model on which most modern central banks have been based. Established in 1694 to act as the English Government's banker and debt manager, and still one of the bankers for the government of the United Kingdom, it is the world's second oldest central bank, after Sweden's (1668). It is consid
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Bank of England note issuesThe Bank of England, which is now the central bank of the United Kingdom, British Crown Dependencies and British Overseas Territories, has issued banknotes since 1694. In 1921 the Bank of England gained a legal monopoly on the issue of banknotes in England and Wales, a process that started with the Bank Charter Act 1844, when the power of other banks to issu
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Bank of England £5 noteThe Bank of England £5 note, also known informally as a fiver, is a sterling banknote. It is the smallest denomination of banknote currently issued by the Bank of England. On 13 September 2016, a new polymer note was introduced, featuring the image Queen Elizabeth II on the obverse and a portrait of Winston Churchill on the reverse. The note is of a green co
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Bank of England £50 noteThe Bank of England £50 note is a sterling banknote circulated in the United Kingdom. It is the highest denomination of banknote currently issued for public circulation by the Bank of England. The current note, the second of this denomination to be printed in polymer, entered circulation on 5 June 2024. It bears the images of King Charles III on the obverse
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bank of England decision in July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$358 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $50 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bank of England decision in July?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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