Trade: How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- $14K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| 0 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 2 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| 4+ | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| 1 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 3 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Market context
Drake's anticipated 2026 album release presents a question about sustained chart dominance: specifically, how many consecutive weeks "ICEMAN" will occupy the No. 1 position on the Billboard 200 albums chart. The settlement window closes at the end of July 2026, establishing a fixed deadline for resolution. The market's current 4% implied probability reflects substantial scepticism about extended chart tenure, with Polymarket's order book pricing in a baseline expectation that the album either fails to debut at No. 1 or holds the position for only a brief period.
Drake's recent catalogue provides instructive precedent. "Certified Lover Boy" (2021) debuted at No. 1 and held the position for three weeks, whilst "Scorpion" (2018) topped the chart for thirteen consecutive weeks. His streaming dominance and fanbase loyalty typically ensure strong opening weeks, yet sustained No. 1 tenure depends on competition from other major releases and listener retention patterns. The 4% probability suggests traders anticipate either fragmented chart competition in 2026 or a scenario where Drake's release underperforms relative to historical benchmarks.
Key variables include the precise release date announcement, which remains unconfirmed, and the competitive landscape of 2026 releases from other major artists. Industry tracking services and Billboard's weekly chart methodology will determine resolution. Any delays beyond December 2026 trigger automatic resolution to the lowest bracket, creating a hard deadline constraint that traders should monitor closely as the year progresses.
Wikipedia Context
-
Many Peaks, QueenslandMany Peaks is a town in Gladstone Region in Queensland, Australia. It is one of four small townships within the locality of Boyne Valley along with Nagoorin, Builyan and Ubobo.
-
May WeekMay Week is the name used in the University of Cambridge to refer to a period at the end of the academic year. Originally May Week took place in the week during May before year-end exams began. Nowadays, May Week takes place in June after exams, and is a cause for great celebration amongst the students of the University. Highlights of the week include bumps
-
Man Seeks GodMan Seeks God: My Flirtations with the Divine is a book written by Eric Weiner, a former NPR Correspondent and author of The Geography of Bliss. When a health scare puts him in the hospital, Weiner, an agnostic, finds himself tangling with an unexpected question, posed to him by a well-meaning nurse. "Have you found your God yet?"
-
Man-hourA man-hour or human-hour is the amount of work performed by the average worker in one hour. It is used for estimation of the total amount of uninterrupted labor required to perform a task. For example, researching and writing a college paper might require eighty man-hours, while preparing a family banquet from scratch might require ten man-hours.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$14K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for drake contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: