Trade: DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Department of Justice (DOJ) releases any audio recording of interviews conducted between Joe Biden and ghostwriter Marc Zwonitzer to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Released to the public refers to the DOJ making the audio recordings freely accessible to the general public for listening, downloading, or other forms of public accessibility. A qualifying release must be intentional by the DOJ; leaks or hacks will not qualify. Paywalls or similar restrictions will not disqualify a public release.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $239
- 24h Volume
- $219
- Open Interest
- $227
Market outcomes
| May 31 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| June 30 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
Market context
In 2021, the Department of Justice obtained audio recordings of interviews between President Joe Biden and ghostwriter Marc Zwonitzer during the investigation into classified documents found at Biden's Delaware home and former office. The market asks whether the DOJ will publicly release these recordings by 30 July 2026. Currently, Polymarket's order book implies a 14% probability of such a release, reflecting substantial scepticism that the department will voluntarily make the materials public.
Historical precedent suggests DOJ audio releases in politically sensitive cases remain rare. The department typically withholds interview recordings and investigative materials under executive privilege or work product doctrine, particularly when involving sitting or former presidents. The special counsel's investigation into classified documents concluded without the DOJ releasing comparable audio materials. Similar high-profile investigations—including those involving Hillary Clinton's email server—saw limited public disclosure of raw investigative audio, with written summaries preferred as the standard vehicle for public information.
Traders should monitor several potential catalysts: congressional subpoenas or Freedom of Information Act litigation seeking the recordings, changes in DOJ leadership or prosecutorial priorities following the 2024 election, and any judicial rulings on executive privilege claims. The Biden administration's position on voluntary disclosure remains the critical variable. As of late 2024, no announced schedule exists for releasing these materials, and the DOJ has not signalled intent to do so. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, allowing time for legislative or judicial pressure to materialise, though the current probability reflects the baseline expectation that such pressure will not succeed.
Wikipedia Context
-
Kath & KimKath & Kim is an Australian sitcom that aired on the prime-time slot on ABC Television from 2002 to 2005 and on Seven Network in 2007. The show was produced by Riley and Turner Productions, the firm of Jane Turner and Gina Riley, who star as the titular characters of Kath Day-Knight, a cheery, middle-aged suburban mother, and Kim Craig, her narcissistic daug
-
DC Releases
DC Releases was a monthly promotional newsletter published by DC Comics from 1984 to 1988.
-
Patch release
A patch release is a release of software, especially one intended to fix bugs or for relatively small changes rather than add significant features. Often, there are too many bugs to be fixed in a single major or minor release, creating a need for a point release.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$239 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for doj contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $219 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "DOJ releases Biden ghostwriter tapes by 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: